Ed Moya – Crazy Commodity Moves To Start The Week; Oil Touched $130, Gold Was $2,000, Copper Hit $5
Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA joins us to recap the continued wild moves higher in commodities. Overnight copper was over $5, oil was over $130 and gold hit $2,000. These spikes have pulled back a little bit but overall the trend continues higher with people wondering just how much higher these commodities can go.
We also tie the spike in commodities, and related inflation, to the stagflation narrative. There are a lot of moving parts that play into this narrative but it clearly is on a lot investors minds currently.
Click here to follow along with Ed’s daily note over at OANDA.
My daily losses continued today greater than the S&P and Nasdaq. One of my purchases to go mainstream to see if that helped (Impact) is down over 30% in a week or two.
75% of portfolio is in red. The shorts really love my portfolio. I will take it as a compliment.
I am getting concerned that I will continue down this path when someone decides that commodities are over bought and my charts go off the page below the lower Bollinger bands, proving everyone wrong except the bullion banks, who are adding swimming pools at their vacation homes on lake Como.
I posted this at another site yesterday:
Bombs away! The financial sector looks horrible versus gold.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF%3AGLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23490752977&a=1101859294
Down 5%+ today! Good stuff for gold and not good at all for the stock market.
Gold has much further to go versus the buck.
GLD:UUP weekly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p42271414561&a=970007413
Friday’s GDX:SPY breakout saw great follow through today:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p14476410643&a=1120927373
HL is at very important resistance:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p32610683702&a=1120953252
Renewed decline underway for the stock market…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=9&id=p94770441666&a=992339997
Those who simply sold the monthly MACD sell signal last July would have exited AMZN between $3,300 and almost $3,800. Now it’s $2,730 (after hours) and nowhere near its final low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=M&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=t2803961896c&r=1646691896051&cmd=print
Charts don’t work, right?
Gold looks great versus the dollar yet the gold miners look great versus gold:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p37578445560&a=1120993808
And the tiny caps now look better than GDX.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63708792376
Last night until early morning, all the paper metals were great. An hour before open, there was a multiple paper candle attack across the board giving a much different picture at open than all night around the world.
The charts at open is what the algos see and react to driving the charts forward.
What happened one hour before open that caused an artificial paper dump against all the metals and oil …other than an indiscriminate paper contract dump by the banks to trigger hedge funds to dump at open. Those intervention actions redefined the charts at open and direction.
I somehow finished up 8% today.
Me too but nowhere near 8%, mostly on the back of IPT, SCZ, FSM. Waiting to see how things play out with RSX.
Wow! Great day Matthew with the portfolio up 8%. Nicely done sir.
I was up a little under 3% on the day, with some big moves in the nickel stocks like FPX Nickel (up 23%) and Group Ten (up 14.5%), and some nice moves in Uranium stocks (like UEC up 18.6% and EU up over 8%), and some PM stocks were up 3%-8% on the day. However, there were still a few laggards in the PMs and Base Metals in the red today that created portfolio friction. One stock I hold a small position in that just totally fell out of bed in today’s session was Elevation Mining (ELVT) on the back of their dilutive fundraising. Down over 24% on the day was a bit painful on that position, and it was already beaten down.
Still overall it was a nice green day in the resource stocks, and I’m getting a sense of more investors taking notice and now realizing these stocks have been on the march higher for a while now.
Lakedweller, you are living in an altered world and you haven’t been able to figure that out. Trouble is brewing not the same sort of trouble we had in 2008 but trouble none the less and the way I see it it won’t be a matter of printing more money or even a recession, we are headed for a Depression. Quit complaining about how the system is treating you that is what losers do. Are things going to get better or worse.
There is a disaster headed our way that is bewildering to the rich and famous and to the foolish. DT
DT
Is what you are saying is that there are no markets, but only opportunities to invest with managed money. They will determine winners and losers and they will design the charts. Any attempt to deviate based on merit of a stock will be met with counter intuitive treatment. The system will be controlled and you either go along or will be punished. Only invest in ETFs, Indexes or Managed Funds or stocks that are included in them. Do not expect regulation and do not expect corruption to be addressed .
If that is what you are suggesting then I can see where I am missing the boat.
Lake, it’s all meaningless until the system is allowed to crash and cleanse itself without the bankers being able at any moment to support prices. The market won’t function with intervention from powerful bankers and The Fed and if intervention is allowed we don’t have a market. DT
Aren’t the markets on a crash program now? We have had 11-12 years of artificial support and it is burning out. They are intervening in miners and physical commodities to keep their artificial General Markets afloat.
The corruption of the banks has gone way beyond saving with dark pools and derivative debt that can domino at anytime.
The Government debt is unpayable and on life support by The Fed and interest rates can’t save the out of control inflation without killing off the dollar completely and losing Reserve Currency status..,
Which also drives the Government to assist in intervention of metals and miners because it goes to confidence about the Government, The Fed, The Currency and The Future of The Republic.
Not sure where I am missing the point when I bitch daily about corruption when I have to look at daily intervention with my miners to the point that performance is predetermined and not even close to based on value.
What I do know is that despite the criminality, that my stocks will rise if they are quality.
What is different this time, is the lag between the paper price of the futures market and the actual prices across the spectrum of miners based on potential. I believe they will catch up, it is taking longer because the system has been broken.
Lakedweller, I realize complaining also goes with the territory. DT
Anyone know or heard…… which countries are ban from selling silver………… thanks